Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

This paper proposes a Bayesian, graph-based approach to identification in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In our Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model, the contemporaneous and temporal causal structures of the structural VAR model are represented by two different graphs. We also provide an...

We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...

The study provides evidence in favour of the price range as a proxy estimator of volatility in financial time series, in the cases that either intra-day datasets are unavailable or they are available at a low sampling frequency.A stochastic differential equation with time varying volatility of...

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

Backtesting stock market investment strategies is fraught with danger – for example, overfitting. The signal to noise ratio in stock markets is so low that overfitting is inevitable. Simulation offers a means of assessing and compensating for the dangers. It is not obvious at first how...

This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the...

In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims by looking at various measures of correlation. Next, we assess what are...

In this paper, we provide new empirical evidence of the relative usefulness of interval (density) and point forecasts of asset-return volatility, in the context of financial risk management using high frequency data. In our evaluation we use both statistical criteria (i.e., accuracy of...

In light of the COVID 19 crisis, the Federal Reserve has carried out stress tests to assess if major banks have sufficient capital to ensure their viability should a new and perhaps unprecedented crisis emerge. The Fed argues that the scenarios underpinning these stress tests are severe but...