The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective … exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose …, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition probabilities to a generic inflation …

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective … exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose …, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition probabilities to a generic inflation …

This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial … production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto … Regression model with time varying transition probabilities to a generic inflation model is implemented for the period 2003 …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile … accurate inflation forecasts. We evaluate these new forecasts in an out-of sample exercise. The new forecasts display important …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

In the paper we investigate, which shocks drive inflation in small open economies. We proceed in two steps. First, we … variables. Our results show that in two out of three analyzed countries the fluctuations of inflation are to the largest extent … inflation variability while for the third country the contribution of the commodity shock dominates over the output gap in …

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the … factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies … inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis …