In this paper I develop a simple dynamic agency model postulating that, among budgetary institutions, transparency of the budgeting process is the main driving force in explaining differences in fiscal outcomes and that budgetary numeric rules can be an active long-run constraint only if the...

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of different types of nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent and explanatory variables is deterministic...

Autonomy is not a new issue in the history of Banco de México. This paper presents how the concept of central bank autonomy has evolved through three main stages. In the first stage, known as statutory autonomy (1925-1938), autonomy was formalized through rules which established ceilings to the...

This paper develops and analyzes a series of tests to evaluate the optimality of forecasts when forecasts for more than one horizon are available. The tests are based on the property that the unconditional expected loss of optimal forecasts should not decrease with the forecast horizon (e.g.,...

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data. Furthermore, the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation...

This article applies fuzzy set theory to measure three dimensions of poverty in Mexico: monetary poverty, non-monetary poverty of private goods and non-monetary poverty of public goods. By using those three dimensions, it is possible to build a joint membership to classify poverty in manifest,...

There are a significant number of papers that show that the slope of the yield curve has a certain ability to forecast real economic activity and inflation. However, in emerging economies this source of information has not been thoroughly used; Mexico is not an exception. The economic stability...

In this paper we identify Mexico’s pattern of revealed comparative advantages within manufacturing trade flows during the 1996-2005 period. We define a basket of competing countries, according to the degree of similarity of each country’s comparative advantage pattern with that of Mexico. We...

In the early 70s Merton developed a theory based on economic arguments to study the properties of option and warrant prices. The main tool in his proofs was the portfolio dominance principle. In the context where the price of a contingent claim satisfies a partial differential equation we...

When monetary policy has an explicit inflation target, observed inflation should be a stationary process. In countries where, for a variety of reasons, the determinants of inflation could lead it to follow a non-stationary process, the adoption of an inflation targeting framework should...