Introduction The context for this year's Budget differs sharply from most of those in the past decade and a half. The global economy has been buffeted by crises in financial markets. Oil prices, even after recent falls, are at very high levels. Furthermore, the sharp decline in housing activity...

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, the Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group.