Chen, Jinzhu; Trehan, Bharat; Kannan, Prakash; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the … forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and … fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the …