This paper considers the statistical inference of the class of asymmetric power-transformed GARCH(1,1) models in presence of possible explosiveness. We study the explosive behavior of volatility when the strict stationarity condition is not met. This allows us to establish the asymptotic...

In conditionally heteroskedastic models, the optimal prediction of powers, or logarithms, of the absolute value has a simple expression in terms of the volatility and an expectation involving the independent process. A natural procedure for estimating this prediction is to estimate the...

Standard risk measures, such as the Value-at-Risk (VaR), or the Expected Shortfall, have to be estimated and their estimated counterparts are subject to estimation uncertainty. Replacing, in the theoretical formulas, the true parameter value by an estimator based on n observations of the Profit...

This paper investigates a class of multiple-threshold models, called Multiple Threshold Double AR (MTDAR) models. A sufficient condition is obtained for the existence and uniqueness of a strictly stationary and ergodic solution to the first-order MTDAR model. We study the Quasi-Maximum...

The linear mixed causal and noncausal autoregressive processes provide often a better fit to economic and financial time series than the standard causal linear autoregressive processes. By considering the example of the noncausal Cauchy autoregressive process, we show that it might be explained...

We investigate the problem of testing the finiteness of moments for a class of semi-parametric time series encompassing many commonly used specifications. The existence of positive-power moments of the strictly stationary solution is characterized by the Moment Determining Function (MDF) of the...

A Bartlett-type formula is proposed for the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocorrelations of nonlinear processes. The asymptotic covariances between sample autocorrelations are expressed as the sum of two terms. The first term corresponds to the standard Bartlett's formula for linear...

Variance targeting estimation is a technique used to alleviate the numerical difficulties encountered in the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of GARCH models. It relies on a reparameterization of the model and a first-step estimation of the unconditional variance. The remaining...

This paper considers a class of finite-order autoregressive linear ARCH models. The model captures the leverage effect, allows the volatility to be zero and to reach its minimum for non-zero innovations, and is appropriate for long-memory modeling when infinite orders are allowed. It is shown...

We consider linearity testing in a general class of nonlinear time series model of order 1, involving a nonnegative nuisance parameter which (i) is not identified under the null hypothesis and (ii) gives the linear model when equal to zero. This paper studies the asymptotic distribution of the...