This paper develops a two-agent New Keynesian model, which is suitable for identifying the drivers of business cycle fluctuations in small open, resource-rich, resource-dependent emerging economies. We confront the model with Nigerian data on eleven macro-economic variables using the Bayesian...

The performance of various monetary rules is investigated in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange-rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the...

As of the last working day of the year 2022 (30th December 2022), the official exchange rate against the US dollar (USD) was 448, while the naira USD exchange rate at the black market traded at 748—a premium of 300. The dollar had already peaked above 800 on the black market during the year...

The Turkish Lira is in the midst of a currency crisis, there's no other way to phrase it. USD/TRY rates have surged almost 42 percent and EUR/TRY rates have risen over 37 percent since the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a surprise 100-bps rate decrease at the end of...

This paper analyses the implications of cost-push shocks for the optimal choice of monetary policy target in an two-country sticky-price model. In addition to cost-push shocks, each country is subject to labour-supply and money-demand shocks. It is shown that the fully optimal coordinated policy...

This paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate in the Bank of Japan?s monetary policy reaction function. In contrast to prior estimations of reaction functions based on the Taylor-rule, we allow for regime shifts by estimating rolling coefficients from January 1974 to March 1999....

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Recent data show substantial increases in the size of gross external asset and liability positions. The implications of these developments for optimal conduct of monetary policy are analyzed in a standard open economy model which is augmented to allow for endogenous portfolio choice. The model...

A key challenge facing most emerging market economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration subject to the constraints imposed by the Trilemma, in the era of deepening globalization. In this paper we study the Trilemma...