This paper examines why order flows are empirically important drivers of spot exchange rate dynamics. We consider a decomposition for the depreciation rate that must hold in any model and show that order flows will appear as important proximate drivers when they convey significant incremental...

Financial markets have experienced unprecedented transformations, signs of which have emerged since the late 1970s. In recent years substantial consolidation occurred. In response to changes in macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, industrial production, inflation and the political business...

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in...

The credit risk exposure of the German banking system is growing again after the 2009 peak and its subsequent reduction. This column comments it through the lens of the Target2 net balances in connection with the capital flows experienced by the Eurozone (EZ) balance of payments. Several aspects...

This paper derives the pricing bounds of a currency cross-rate option using the option prices of two related dollar rates via a copula theory and presents the analytical properties of the bounds under the Gaussian framework. Our option pricing bounds are useful, because (1) they are general in...

We use, for the first time, a time-varying copula model to investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on the dependence between seventeen European stock markets during the period 1994-2003. The model is implemented with a GJR-GARCH-t model for the marginal distributions and the...

I characterize the global solution to the portfolio problem of two heterogeneous investors with general preferences, in a two-tree, two-good environment. Investors have recursive preferences and a bias in consumption towards a preferred good. The framework highlights the role of the allocation...

I adapt the framework of Sauzet (2021) to an international setting to characterize the global solution to the international portfolio problem in full generality, a long-standing open issue in international finance. In this two-country, two-good environment, investors have recursive preferences...

I study the joint dynamics between the US wealth share, the dollar and the global economy. I uncover three novel stylised facts about these joint dynamics. Firstly, the US wealth share is countercyclical: it falls on impact but subsequently rises over the course of global recessions. Secondly...