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variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the … forecasting technique with respect to various volatility estimators. The methodology of volatility estimation includes Close …, Garman-Klass, Parkinson, Roger-Satchell and Yang-Zhang methods and forecasting is done through ARIMA technique. The study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860158
proposed. A large-scale out-of-sample forecasting analysis comparing the different models is performed. It is found that models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055642
periodic ARMA process enable us to formulate a forecasting method which avoids recursion and allows us to obtain analytic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056817
The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we provide the linearly independent solutions to TV-AR models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057032
Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance targeting, which reduces the degree of parameterization and facilitates estimation. We compare the two approaches and investigate, via simulations, how non-normality features of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016629
The objective of this paper is to analyze what are the main determinants of the exchange rate risk premium (ERP). The empirical case is conducted for the daily Mexican peso-USD for a simple period from 2007 until 2015. According to the results the ERP is influenced by several financial variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987010
usefulness of including order book variables for out-of-sample forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990974
The benefits of using flight-to-safety (FTS) in volatility forecasting are assessed within a multivariate GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916710
We analyze the impact of sentiment and attention variables on volatility by using a novel and extensive dataset that combines social media, news articles, information consumption, and search engine data. Applying a state-of-the-art sentiment classification technique, we investigate the question...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917736
We propose new asymmetric multivariate volatility models. The models exploit estimates of variances and covariances based on the signs of high-frequency returns, measures known as realized semivariances, semicovariances, and semicorrelations, to allow for more nuanced responses to positive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921351