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The growth of peer-to-peer exchanges and the blockchain technology has led to a proliferation of cryptocurrencies and to a massive increase in the number of investors who actually negotiate digital money. Cryptocurrencies trade at prices which is mainly driven by investor sentiment, becoming a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012931458
This paper tackles a core question of portfolio management: How ‘active' is an active portfolio? To answer this question holistically, we generalise the idea of Active Share by keeping the same calculation methodology but substituting in different types of portfolio and benchmark ‘weights'....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012931742
Linear GARCH(1,1) and GJR GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails follow a Power Law, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be either symmetrically distributed or skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933309
We introduce tests for multi-horizon superior predictive ability. Rather than comparing forecasts of different models at multiple horizons individually, we propose to jointly consider all horizons within a forecast path. We define the concepts of uniform and average superior predictive ability....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933849
, forecasting and pricing “good” and “bad” volatilities based on realized variation type measures constructed from high … most noteworthy empirical findings to date pertaining to volatility forecasting and asset pricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607048
covers different types of forecasting applications encountered in the literature. We are concerned with 1-step …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216191
forecasting performance on days with volatility jumps for 23 NASDAQ stocks from 27 July 2007 to 18 November 2016. A simple … best forecasting performance for both normal and jump volatility days. Finally, we use Integrated Gradients and SHAP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217713
This paper examines, for the first time, the performance of machine learning models in realised volatility forecasting … sample period of July 27, 2007, to November 18, 2016. We find strong evidence to support ML forecasting power dominating an …-ML has very strong forecasting power and adding news sentiment variables to the data set only improves the forecasting power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222880
describe the implementation of the BAC estimator in case of microstructure noise and jumps. We further present more detailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233548
We propose a model that extends the RT-GARCH model by allowing conditional heteroskedasticity in the volatility process. We show we are able to filter and forecast both volatility and volatility of volatility simultaneously in this simple setting. The volatility forecast function follows a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234440