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in asset pricing, risk forecasting, and for explaining the aggregate trading volume of S&P 500 firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213867
We propose a new class of conditional heteroskedasticity in the volatility (CH-V) models which allows for time-varying volatility of volatility in the volatility of asset returns. This class nests a variety of GARCH-type models and the SHARV model of Ding (2021b). CH-V models can be seen as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214647
asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a … number of recent papers have addressed volatility predictability, some from the perspective of the usefulness of jumps in … forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078565
in applications that involve forecasts of latent target variables. Such applications include the forecasting of … application to correlation forecasting is presented …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079416
HAR and GARCH models across various forecasting horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829634
of the point-forecasting model. Moreover, linear (nonlinear) model-based point forecasts perform worse (marginally better … predict "pseudo true" volatility densities for specific magnitudes of "price jumps" and "microstructure noise" in the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314352
-parametrically estimated components of quadratic variation, as well as mixed frequency macroeconomic variables. When forecasting growth rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321464
This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default process. The major contribution to previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419329
This paper proposes a generalization of the class of realized semivariance and semicovariance measures introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen, Kinnebrock and Shephard (2010) and Bollerslev, Li, Patton and Quaedvlieg (2020a) to allow for a finer decomposition of realized (co)variances. The new "realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249756
related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586235