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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286185
been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and …, hence, the price of the resource. A set of oil demand equations is estimated for OECD and non-OECD countries, which is then … would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India. The expected rise in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767765
undertaken to assess the impact of power industry disruptors on the near-term prospect of the electricity demand in the most … One tackles firstly the risks to sustained economic and income growth which will, in turn, impact on the demand for … the growth of aggregate and disaggregate (by customer types) demand in a distribution utility franchise, in this case, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011989909
, including the growing demand for oil, which has prompted a resurgence of resource nationalism and the revitalization of national …, however, is to find a balance of sources that best provides energy security, meets growing demand, is environmentally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010652563
Analysing causality among oil prices and, in general, among financial and economic variables is of central relevance in applied economics studies. The recent contribution of Lu et al. (2014) proposes a novel test for causality- the DCC-MGARCH Hong test. We show that the critical values of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012648568
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661575
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243891
Previous studies document statistically significant evidence of crude oil return predictability by several forecasting variables. We suggest that this evidence is misleading and follows from the common use of within-month averages of daily oil prices in calculating returns used in predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227125
This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577077