This paper presents ideas for improved conditional probability assessment and improved expert systems consultations. It cautions that knowledge engineers may sometimes be imprecise when capturing causal information from experts: their elicitation questions may not distinguish between causal and...

Riordan and Sappington (JET, 1988) show that in an agency relationship in which the agent’s type is correlated with a public ex post signal, the principal may attain first best (full surplus extraction and efficient output levels) if the agent is faced with a lottery such that each type is...

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...