We reexamine the fit of Bennett and Stam's 1996 model of war duration, correcting errors in the reported estimates of prediction accuracy.We discuss how to assess fit in the absence of standard or widely accepted measures of fit in duration models. We introduce a proportional reduction in error...

A theory of sanction duration that focuses on differences between democratic and nondemocratic states in the structure of leaders’ support coalitions is tested, using a hazard model to analyze a data set of 47 sanction events with 272 observations. Results show that leadership change...

A model of bargaining embedded within a random-walk model of warfare is developed. The conflict model contains aspects of both lottery-based and war-of-attrition models of conflict. Results show that future disputes are less likely to lead to armed conflict following long rather than short wars....

Mark Fey and Kristopher Ramsay (2006) take issue with the presentation of how players' beliefs diverge in “Bargaining and the Nature of War†(Smith and Stam 2004). In that article, the authors constructed a model of bargaining between two nations in which the nations have noncommon...

In this article, the authors investigate the relationship between states'political leaders'ages, their regime type, and the likelihood of militarized dispute initiation and escalation. They examine more than 100,000 interstate dyads between 1875 and 2002 to systematically test the relationship...

Signorino and Ritter developed and advocated a new measure of the political similarity of states (S). They demonstrated logical flaws associated with the common Kendall's Ï„ b -based alliance similarity measure and showed that using S may yield quite different similarity estimates. But...

The authors advance a general perspective on how to incorporate the notion of foreign policy substitutability in probabilistic models of international politics. They suggest that substitutability may be dealt with in one of two ways, namely, (1) through better specification or (2) through the...