We reexamine the fit of Bennett and Stam's 1996 model of war duration, correcting errors in the reported estimates of prediction accuracy.We discuss how to assess fit in the absence of standard or widely accepted measures of fit in duration models. We introduce a proportional reduction in error...

A model of bargaining embedded within a random-walk model of warfare is developed. The conflict model contains aspects of both lottery-based and war-of-attrition models of conflict. Results show that future disputes are less likely to lead to armed conflict following long rather than short wars....

Mark Fey and Kristopher Ramsay (2006) take issue with the presentation of how players' beliefs diverge in “Bargaining and the Nature of War†(Smith and Stam 2004). In that article, the authors constructed a model of bargaining between two nations in which the nations have noncommon...

In this article, the authors investigate the relationship between states'political leaders'ages, their regime type, and the likelihood of militarized dispute initiation and escalation. They examine more than 100,000 interstate dyads between 1875 and 2002 to systematically test the relationship...

A theory of sanction duration that focuses on differences between democratic and nondemocratic states in the structure of leaders’ support coalitions is tested, using a hazard model to analyze a data set of 47 sanction events with 272 observations. Results show that leadership change...

The predominant operationalizations of enduring rivalries use a period of time without a militarized dispute to identify the termination of such rivalries. The author argues that this misses the true termination date of most rivalries because it does not identify when the underlying disputed...