Determining which variables afect price realized volatility has always been challenging. This paper proposes to explain how fnancial assets infuence realized volatility by developing an optimal day-to-day forecast. The methodological proposal is based on using the best econometric and machine...

We propose a belief-generating model from which we build a statistical measure of investor disagreement. We simulate differences in beliefs across investors by endowing them with different machine learning models for forecasting returns from the same set of inputs. We measure disagreement as the...

Linear Econometric Models with Machine Learning -- Nonlinear Econometric Models with Machine Learning -- The Use of Machine Learning in Treatment Effect Estimation.-Forecasting with Machine Learning Methods.-Causal Estimation of Treatment Effects From Observational Health Care Data Using Machine...

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, gradient linear boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...

We propose a statistical model of differences in beliefs in which heterogeneous investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs that are available to all investors. We measure...

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...