In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma...

This paper develops a general approximation scheme, henceforth called a hybrid asymptotic expansion scheme for valuation of multi-factor European path-independent derivatives. Specifically, we apply it to pricing long-term currency options under a market model of interest rates and a general...

In integrated project delivery methods such as build-operate-transfer (BOT), a thorough financial risk analysis model should incorporate completion risk analysis into operation risk analysis as the timing of financial events such as refinancing and debt servicing depend on the construction...

We present a simulation model in this paper to determine the value of intellectual capital. In frame of the simulation model we have used the Baruch Lev’s intellectual capital valuation modell.We have built in the Baruch Lev model in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation modell. We have...

This document presents several Credit Risk tools which have been developed for the Credit Derivatives Risk Management. The models used in this context are suitable for the pricing, sensitivity/scenario analysis and the derivation of risk measures for plain vanilla credit default swaps (CDS),...

This paper adresses the general issue of estimating the sensitivity of the expectation of a random variable with respect to a parameter characterizing its evolution. In finance for example, the sensitivities of the price of a contingent claim are called the Greeks. A new way of estimating the...

This paper focuses on uncertainties in traffic forecasting. Three major sources of uncertainties are observed for freight demand models. The first one is the model specification itself. We are not interested by it. The second one concerns uncertainties over forecasting hypotheses. A mean to...

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper...