In this dissertation three different economic issues have been analyzed. The firstissue is whether monetary policy rules can improve forecasting accuracy of inflation.The second is whether the preference of a central bank is symmetry or not. The last issueis whether the behavior of aggregate...

This dissertation investigates empirically the consequences of recent fiscal policy changes on China?s rural development. It uses a county-level dataset covering over 90 percent of rural counties and a period of 13 years since 1993, in which China started to experience a series of fiscal reforms...

We analyze exchange rate volatility in the Visegrad Four countries in the course of their abandoning tight regimes for more flexible ones. We account for path dependence, asymmetric shocks, movements in interest rates, and allow for generalized error distribution. The overall findings are that...

Exchange rate stability was defined as one of the prerequisites for monetary integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a selected group of European Union countries (the...

This paper shows that the integrated modified OLS (IM-OLS) estimator developed for cointegrating linear regressions in Vogelsang and Wagner (2014a) can be straightforwardly extended to cointegrating multivariate polynomial regressions. These are regression models that include as explanatory...

We propose a statistical identification procedure for recursive structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models that present a nonlinear dependence (at least) at the contemporaneous level. By applying and adapting results from the literature on causal discovery with continuous additive noise...

In a world full of studies dealing with the relationship of price-to-earnings ratio and the dividend payout ratio, rarely noticeable are those examining the possibility that this relationship may be non-linear. Although rare, studies that aim to fill this gap focus solely on the US capital...

This doctoral thesis addresses in a sequence of five essays the question how fiscal policy and economic output are interrelated in emerging Europe and how this relationship is shaped by the respective politico-economic environment and the individual-level support for economic reforms. Following...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...