This article introduces a new family of Bayesian semiparametric models for the conditional distribution of daily stock index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely, heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering, and the "leverage effect." A Bayesian...

Hippocampal volume is one of the best established biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease. However, for appropriate use in clinical trials research, the evolution of hippocampal volume needs to be well understood. Recent theoretical models propose a sigmoidal pattern for its evolution. To support...

The authors investigate the linkage between presidential operational codes and the management of foreign policy conflicts during the period of strategic adjustment in American foreign policy following the cold war. Beliefs expressed in public speeches by Presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton...

An approach to modeling dependent nonparametric random density functions is presented. This is based on the well known mixture of Dirichlet process model. The idea is to use a technique for constructing dependent random variables, first used for dependent gamma random variables. While the...

This paper uses free-knot and fixed-knot regression splines in a Bayesian context to develop methods for the nonparametric estimation of functions subject to shape constraints in models with log-concave likelihood functions. The shape constraints we consider include monotonicity, convexity and...

type="main" xml:id="sjos12047-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title>This paper examines the use of Dirichlet process mixtures for curve fitting. An important modelling aspect in this setting is the choice between constant and covariate-dependent weights. By examining the problem of curve fitting from a predictive...

For rare diseases the observed disease count may exhibit extra Poisson variability, particularly in areas with low or sparse populations. Hence the variance of the estimates of disease risk, the standardized mortality ratios, may be highly unstable. This overdispersion must be taken into account...

We deal with strong consistency for Bayesian density estimation. An awkward consequence of inconsistency is described. It is pointed out that consistency at some density f-sub-0 depends on the prior mass assigned to the 'pathological' set of those densities that are close to f-sub-0, in a weak...