unemployment fluctuations of the last three decades. A structural VAR model for the growth rates of labor productivity, inflation … and unemployment is estimated on American and French data. By using long-run identifying restrictions, unemployment … large part of the French unemployment drift. This result questions the conventional prior that the heterogeneity in …

unemployment fluctuations of the last three decades. A structural VAR model for the growth rates of labor productivity, inflation … and unemployment is estimated on American and French data. By using long-run identifying restrictions, unemployment … large part of the French unemployment drift. This result questions the conventional prior that the heterogeneity in …

differenced unemployment rate, to isolate three 'structural' shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in Spain during 1970 … unit-root persistence in the unemployment rate. Our basic finding is that disinflationary policies in an economy suffering … from high persistence can become very costly in terms of unemployment, unless supply-side reforms, aimed at eliminating the …

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the … is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on … actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany …

in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis …We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model … effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did …

the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold. First, only a minor part of the rise in uncertainty measures during the … percentage point of the drop in GDP, macroeconomic uncertainty shocks increased the unemployment rate by up to 0.7 percentage …

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our … standard limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a … real interest rates). We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model …

enables hysteresis to be taken into account. Hysteresis is likely to show up in unemployment but it can also affect the … capital stock due to the existence of long investment cycles. In the proposed model, hysteresis may affect all the factor … be computed that are hysteresis-free and less prone to volatility. A complementary measure of the output gap that takes …

In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call … employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits … through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least …

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we … introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the … hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions …