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Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388936
Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012195063
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119472
The 2008-09 global economic crises have shown that no country is immune to external challenges. When policy controls are missing or not used efficiently, crises can reverse progress even in advanced economies. This unexpected outcome has increased concerns about the ability of governments in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010829327
The current recession's impact on unemployment has been more pernicious than even the usual indicators show. The … credit expansion. The unemployment rate is likely to peak at 11.5 percent if today's crisis turns out to be similar to past … credit crunches. A vicious cycle with a feedback loop may continue to develop. Rising unemployment rates lead to heightened …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148800
The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074698
This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547774
This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311939
economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct … demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and … explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that uctuations in the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216141
Using data on 53 countries, this paper studies the unemployment effects of the far-reaching banking liberalization that … liberalization substantially decreased unemployment, particularly among young people. The lowering of barriers to the entry of … strongest effects. There is some, albeit weak, evidence that the cutback in interest rate controls has decreased unemployment as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010943001