Joining the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened for Latvia. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of economy of Latvia. Latvia's incoming in EU increased the amount of received means from structural...

In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR)of an inflation-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To...

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves’ goodness of fit is...

In the paper we have investigated to what extent the behaviour of CPI inflation depends on changes in domestic economic activity in Polish economy which is usually described as a small open economy. We conducted a disaggregated analysis using price indices at the COICOP 4-digit level. We...

This study estimates the output gaps for Pakistan, using both the statistical and the structural methods and comparing their results. Though they show some degree of association, the measures reveal inherent differences in the measures of output gap. Based on the annual data of GDP (1951-2007)...

This study estimates the output gaps for Pakistan, using both the statistical and the structural methods and comparing their results. Though they show some degree of association, the measures reveal inherent differences in the measures of output gap. Based on the annual data of GDP (1951-2007)...

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different sectors - industry, services, construction, and agriculture - across the four largest euro area economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By...

In this article we analyze the accuracy and stability of short-run inflation forecasts for Chile coming from Extended Seasonal Arima (ESARIMA) models. We compare ESARIMA forecasts to those coming from surveys and traditional time series bench- marks available in the literature. Our results show...

Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional forecasters failed to anticipate it. A possible explanation...

A short article which motivates the use of a fan chart in the communication of forecasts, with special emphasis on inflation forecasts. A fan chart for Maltese HICP inflation projections is built, using the history of forecast errors.