Benford's Law is used to test for data irregularities. While novel, there are two weaknesses in the current methodology. First, test values used in practice are too conservative and the test values of this paper are more powerful and hold for fairly small samples. Second, testing requires...

It is 15:00 on Friday in Nairobi. Do you know where your enumerators are?? Good quality data is paramount for applied economic research. If the data are distorted, corresponding conclusions may be incorrect. We demonstrate how Benford's law, the distribution that first digits of numbers in...

This paper analyzes how closely different income measures conform to Benford's law, a mathematical predictor of probable first digit distribution across many sets of numbers. Because Benford's law can be used to test data set reliability, we use a Benford analysis to assess the quality of six...

Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun's law. We use a logistic smoothed transition regression (LSTR) model where possible threshold endogeneity is addressed based on copula theory. We also suggest a new test of the linearity hypothesis...

We introduce a smooth transition Generalized Pareto (GP) regression model to study the link between extreme losses and the economic context. The advantage of our approach consists in specifying a time-varying dependence structure between financial factors and the severity distribution of the...

Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun's law. We use a logistic smoothed transition regression (LSTR) model where possible threshold endogeneity is addressed based on copula theory. We also suggest a new test of the linearity hypothesis...

This paper develops methods for the production and evaluation of censored density forecasts. Censored density forecasts quantify forecast risks in a middle region of the density covering a specified probability, and ignore the magnitude but not the frequency of outlying observations. We propose...

The loss count distributions whose probabilities ultimately satisfy Panjer’s recursion were classified between 1981 and 2002; they split into six types, which look quite diverse. Yet, the distributions are closely related – we show that their probabilities emerge out of one formula: the Binomial...

Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun's law. We use a logistic smoothed transition regression (LSTR) model where possible threshold endogeneity is addressed based on copula theory. We also suggest a new test of the linearity hypothesis...

Since the seminal paper by Heckman (1974), the sample selection model has been an essential tool for applied economists and arguably the most sensitive to sources of misspecification among the standard microeconometric models involving limited dependent variables. The need for alternative...