Peer review and public-private partnerships hinge on transparency. Transparency is about commonly shared knowledge about the economy, its performance, and the way policy influences it. The Composite Indicator of Economic Activity in Mozambique (ICAE) is a tool of knowledge whose construction is...

We develop a new automatically-computable test for super exogeneity, using a variant of general-to-specific modeling.  Based on the recent developments of impulse saturation applied to marginal models under the null that no impulses matter, we select the significant impulses for testing in the...

In von Neumann and Morgenstern's sample model of poker, equilibrium has the first player bet with high and low hands, and check with intermediate hands.  The second player then calls if his hand is sufficiently high.  Betting by the low hands is interpreted as bluffing, and is a pure...

Models of macroeconomic learning are populated by agents who possess a great deal of knowledge of the "true" structure of the economy, and yet ignore the impact of their own learning on that structure; they may learn about an equilibrium, but they do not learn within it.  An alternative learning...

This paper analyzes yield spreads on sovereign debt issued by emerging markets using modern data from the 1990s and newly-collected historical data on debt traded in London during 1870–1913, a previous “golden era†for international capital market...

Sometimes shareholders are better off delegating to a CEO with different objectives than their own. A top manager motivated to share surpluses with workers can encourage union members to adopt efficient production methods. Bond covenants may constrain managers from acquiescing to union wage...

The paper extends existing work on inequality and economic development by estimating a cross-country structural model that identifies bi-directional relationships between income inequality and other indicators of social and economic development. Overall, lower inequality is associated with...