Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 33 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 1970Q1-2016Q4, we...

This paper tests a geography and growth model using regional data for Europe, the US, and Japan. We set up a standard geography and growth model with a poverty trap and derive a log-linearized growth equation that corresponds directly to a threshold regression technique in econometrics. In...

This paper examines whether economic integration favors countries' convergence into a common cone of diversification. We analyze the manufacturing specialization patterns for a sample of 19 current and potential European Union countries over the period 1963-1998, and assess the impact of...

Estimation of threshold parameters in (generalized) threshold regression models is typically performed by maximizing the corresponding pro file likelihood function. Also, certain Bayesian techniques based on non-informative priors are developed and widely used. This article draws attention to...

A large set of financial variables has only limited power to predict a latent factor common to the year-ahead forecast errors for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for three sets of professional forecasters: the Federal...

This paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on the firm growth of the manufacturing sector (513 firms) in selected ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) using a cross-section threshold estimation technique. The levels of financial inclusion across firms were measured...

Estimation of threshold parameters in (generalized) threshold regression models is typically performed by maximizing the corresponding profile likelihood function. Also, certain Bayesian techniques based on non-informative priors are developed and widely used. This article draws attention to...