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Macroeconomic effects of secondary market trading

Neuhann, Daniel - 2016

This paper develops a theory of the secondary market trading of financial securitities in which endogenous asset market dynamics generate periods of growing aggregate credit volumes and falling credit standards even in the absence of "financial shocks." Falling credit standards in turn lead to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975286

Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210

An inflation expectations horserace

Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457

Wiedergewinnung von Vertrauen oder Rueckkehr der Vertrauensillusion? Ein Plaedoyer fuer gesundes Misstrauen gegenueber systematischen Tautologien (Regain of Trust or the Return of...

Weber-Berg, Christoph - In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Unternehmensethik - … 11 (2010) 2, pp. 126-138

Moral, sondern mehr ethische Kompetenz auf allen Gestaltungsebenen des Wirtschaftens gefordert. (The loss of trust in the … context of the actual crisis is widely deplored. But how deep were the roots of trust after all? This article argues that the … financial system, even in times of well functioning, was affected by deep mistrust, masked by a mere illusion of trust, evolving …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765273

Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations

Liu, Zheng; Wang, Pengfei; Zha, Tao - 2011

We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the comovements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: we introduce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292308

Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?

Hamburg, Britta; Hoffmann, Mathias; Keller, Joachim - 2005

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income - the consumption-wealth ratio - in Germany, based on data from 1980 to 2003. Earlier papers for the Anglo-Saxon economies have documented that departures of these three variables from their common trend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295684

Income redistribution, consumer credit, and keeping up with the Riches

Krause, Christopher; Klein, Mathias - 2015

In this study, the relation between consumer credit and real economic activity during the Great Moderation is studied in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our model economy is populated by two different household types. Investors, who hold the economy's capital stock, own the firms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301412

Housing Wealth and Aggregate Consumption in Sweden

Chen, Jie - 2006

This paper extends the VECM cointegration model and PT (permanent-transitory) variance decomposition framework proposed by Lettau & Ludvigson (2004) and applies them on the Swedish data spanning from 1980q1 to 2004q4. There are strong statistical evidences that the movements of aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321586

Re-examining the role of financial constraints in business cycles: Is something wrong with the credit multiplier?

Olivella, Virginia; Roldán-Peña, Jessica - 2013

Motivated by the apparent failure of the credit multiplier mechanism (CM) to deliver amplification in DSGE models, we re-examine its role in business cycles to address the question: is something wrong with the CM? Our answer is no. In coming to this answer we construct a model with reproducible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322546

Bubbles and crowding-in of capital via a savings glut

Hillebrand, Marten; Kikuchi, Tomoo; Sakuragawa, Masaya - 2013

This paper uncovers a novel mechanism by which bubbles crowd in capital investment. If capital is initially depressed by a binding credit constraint, injecting a bubble triggers a savings glut. Higher returns in a new bubbly equilibrium attract additional investors who expand investment at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010329221