This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts,i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some othervariables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods andis computationally viable for large vector...

At a time when debt-to-GDP ratios are closely monitored in the Euro area, thispaper generates a set of stylized facts about sovereign debt and yields. First, Ipresent a new dataset on outstanding debt securities and yields for six EA countries(Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain)...

We develop a novel framework to analyze the structural implications of the marriage market for house-hold consumption patterns. We start by de…ning a revealed preference characterization of e¢ cient householdconsumption when the marriage is stable. In particular, stability means that the...

This letter develops a set of simple conditions under which an individual iswilling to save an extra amount of money due to the presence of ambiguity onits second period wealth. This extra precautionary saving motive is naturallyassociated to the notion of ambiguity prudence.

This paper assesses the effects of applying VAT or a sales tax on (intermediate or final) sales of the financial sector. It uses a CGE Model calibrated for a small open economy. It highlights the differentiated sectoral and redistributional effects of these taxes and shows the importance of the...

Many international trade agreements regulate the use of domestic policies. Oneapproach is "deep" integration, in which governments contract directly over domesticpolicies. An appealing alternative is "shallow" integration, in which nations contractover market access and avoid negotiations over...