We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We...

Survey nonresponse makes identification of population statistics problematic. Except in special cases, identification is possible only if one makes untestable assumptions about the distribution of the missing data. However, non-response does not preclude identification of bounds on population...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of...

Econometricians have found it useful to separate the problem of empirical inference into statistical and identification components. Studies of identification determine the conclusions that could be drawn if a researcher were able to observe a data sample of unlimited size. Statistical inference...

Research on consumer confidence has mainly sought to evaluate the power of available data to predict economic outcomes. In contrast, this article considers how best to measure consumer confidence. We analyze the responses to eight questions that have appeared recently on the Michigan Survey of...