This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has affected many countries including Mexico. The exchange rate depreciated sharply in the fall of 2008. This chapter investigates the experience of Mexico with currency crises since 1990. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of an ordered logit model...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced...

This paper presents a hybrid model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the artificial intelligence tools. The model combines the learning ability of the artificial neural network (ANN) with the inference mechanism of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) technique. Thus,...

This paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the automotive industry exports of Korea using a traditional long-run export demand model. In measuring the exchange rate volatility this study employed the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH(1,1)] model...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...