Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis. More specifically, the paper investigates the relation between...

Traditionally, nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) rely on macroeconomic leading indicators to forecast the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking into account the persistence of the crisis phenomenon. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an...

Recent episodes of financial crises have revived the interest in developing models that are able to timely signal their occurrence. The literature has developed both parametric and non parametric models to predict these crises, the so called Early Warning Systems. Using data related to sovereign...

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and...

This paper examines the cases of the Early Warning System (EWS) in the Republic of Korea, which was introduced in the wake of 1997/98 Asian financial crisis in a policy effort to prevent its recurrence. The EWS in the Republic of Korea was expanded into a national system in 2005 incorporating...

Despite abundant empirical evidence on the merits and limits of early-warning systems for banking crises the day-to-day use of such systems seems to be limited. Reluctance to use such systems may partly be explained by the difficulties to operationalise the proposed models, which are often...

This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the...

This study seeks to answer whether it is possible to design an early warning system framework that can signal the risk of fiscal stress in the near future, and what shape such a system should take. To do so, multiple models based on econometric logit and the random forest models are designed and...

The paper investigates the life-cycle of the 2008-2009 financial crisis by linking the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Scoreboard of the European Commission to the crisis database of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). The novelty of the analysis is that early warning capacity of...