A vector error-correction model (VECM) of real consumable output is identified and estimated, employing the Johansen-Juselius (1990) test for cointegration. Because the Austrian school views economic activity as a disequilibrium process, VECM estimates offer an empirical methodology especially...

This article assesses economic growth in the context of consumer saturation. We show that consumer based economies tend to suffer from demand saturation after an initial and prolonged period of growth. However, structural demand saturation irrevocably triggers a Minsky-type super cycle that is...

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with...

We develop a N-sector business cycle network model a la Long and Plosser (1983), featuring heterogenous money demand a la Bewley (1980) and Lucas (1980). Despite incomplete markets and a well-defined distribution of real money balances across heterogeneous households, the enriched N-sector...

Industrial fluctuations are closely related to the evolution of relative prices of produced goods and resources involved in production activity. Industrial fluctuations, as an expression of forces manifested in the real economy, are caused by changes in individuals’ consumption and investment...

In the business cycle literature of the inter-war years, the role of the interest rate in coordinating, or failing to co-ordinate, agents' choices about the allocation of resources over time was an important theme, to which Axel Leijonhufvud (1981) gave the name "the Wicksell connection". The...

We show that firms' nominal required returns to capital (i.e., their discount rates) are sticky with respect to expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real discount rates and thereby raise real investment. We...

En este documento se proponen tres medidas nuevas de la brecha del producto y de la tasa de interés real. En vez de basarnos exclusivamente en los filtros estadísticos, las medidas propuestas usan modelos neokeynesianos semiestructurales, adaptados para una economía pequeña y abierta. Las...

A vector error-correction model (VECM) of output, consumption, investment, and credit is identified and estimated, employing the Johansen-Juselius (1990) test for cointegration. Because the Austrian school views economic activity as a disequilibrium process, VECM estimates offer an empirical...

Extended periods of ultra-easy monetary policy in advanced economies have rekindled debates about the zombification of weak companies and its impact on resource allocation, economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. Using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, we find that recessions...