The authors consider two alternative methods of forecasting real per capita GDP at various horizons: 1) univariate time series models estimated country by country; and 2) cross-country growth regressions. They evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches for a large...

This paper finds that a 1 percent reduction in the cost of exporting or the cost of international transport is associated with an export diversification gain of 0.3 percent or 0.4 percent respectively. Lower domestic market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the elasticity is...

Recently, interest in regionalism has mushroomed, and economists have analyzed it not only from the viewpoint of trade but that of foreign investment, macroeconomics, and political economy. But questions of technological regionalism -whether the accumulation and diffusion of technology has a...

This paper is a contribution to the understanding of global interconnections through the evaluation and validation of the capabilities and properties of MULTIMOD, a multiregional macroeconomic model, developed and maintained at the International Monetary Fund. The author finds the model...

The authors examine patterns of media ownership in 97 countries around the world. They find that almost universally the largest media firms are controlled by the government or by private families. Government ownership is more pervasive in broadcasting than in the printed media. Government...

In the United States, gross business fixed investments constitute about 10 percent of the Gross National Product (GNP). Such investments may represent GNP's most important component because: a) plant and equipment have a long-term effect on the economy's productive capacity, b) changes in...

This report presents the short- and long-run behavior of primary commodity prices and the implications of movements in these prices for developing countries. Most earlier studies of the long-term trend in the net barter terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures have suffered...

Thee worldwide development of information and communication technology (ICT) has accelerated dramatically over the past decade. Increased ICT production and use has the potential to influence economic growth positively. This paper focuses on the linkage between ICT and output growth and...

Informational and Communication Technologies (ICT) plays a fundamental role for social and economic development. Similarly, it is recognized that there cannot be an effective use of ICT in the absence of a safe and trusted ICT environment. Thus, IT security plays a prime role in helping creating...

Broadcasting can have a significant part to play in the fight to reduce global poverty. At least 77 percent of the world's population is estimated to be within easy access of broadcast technology (compared to perhaps 4 percent for the Internet), broadcast services are easily accessible by the...