The main goal of the paper is to examine whether surges in private capital inflows lead to credit booms. The authors built a quarterly database on gross capital inflows, credit to the private sector, and other macro-financial indicators for a sample of 71 countries from 1975q1 to 2010q4....

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from...

This paper presents a model of global liquidity shortages. Liquid claims are enforceable promises that play a transaction role. Since developed economies have a comparative advantage in creating liquidity, they export liquid claims to emerging economies, resulting in a permanent current account...

This paper uses model averaging techniques to identify robust predictors of sovereign default episodes on a pooled database for 46 emerging economies over the period 1980-2004. Sovereign default episodes are defined according to Standard&Poor’s or by non-concessional International Monetary...

This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper...

Financial crises affect income distribution by way of different channels. The authors argue that financial transfers are an important channel which has been overlooked by the literature. They study the role of financial transfers by analyzing some of the most severe Latin American crises during...

The author investigates whether the credit channel is a key monetary transmission mechanism in the Republic of Korea, especially after its recent financial crisis. To identify the existence of a distinctive credit channel (especially the bank lending channel), he applies two empirical tests to...

Using bank data for 80 countries for 1988-95, the authors show that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect various determinants: bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, explicit and implicit bank taxes, regulation of deposit insurance, general financial structure,...

Between 1983 and 1986, Malaysia embarked on a structural adjustment program to control its fiscal and balance of payments deficits. In reaction to the shock of sharply declining commodity prices, the Malaysian government drastically cut back on public spending and allowed the exchange rate to...

The authors show that capital inflows into the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)--inflows that are mainly private, debt-driven, and increasingly supplied by banks on a shortening maturity--are especially vulnerable to reversals. They show that the region's banking systems are...