The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade....

One side-effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was the resurgence of a debate over exchange rates. The conventional wisdom dictates that real-exchange rate adjustments are needed in order to bring about changes in trade balances across countries. However, the literature on the effect...

Financial globalization, defined as global linkages through cross-border financial flows, has become increasingly relevant for emerging markets as they integrate financially with the rest of the world. This paper argues that, because of the way it is often measured, it has also led to the...

During the crises of the 1990s, emerging economies usually lacked the policy tools to deal with external shocks that were available to advanced economies. Worldwide turbulent episodes found most emerging economies unable to perform countercyclical policies and, in many cases, their own...

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner...

This paper explores how the ongoing crisis, the policy responses to it, and the post-crisis global economy will impact China's medium-term prospects for growth, poverty reduction, and development. The paper reviews China's pre-crisis growth experience, including its relationship to global...

The financial crisis arose in the industrial countries, but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates, sharp changes in commodity prices, and reductions in investment, trade, migration and remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage...

Stress tests are the main practical tools of macroprudential oversight. This paper reviews the stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and South Eastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines the challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors discuss good practice and...

A long empirical literature has examined the idea that, in the absence of hedging mechanisms, currency risk should have an adverse effect on the export volumes of risk averse exporters. But there are no clear conclusions from this literature, and the current consensus seems to be that there is...

Instead of just focusing on the effect of exchange rate levels (undervalued or overvalued exchange rates) on trade, this paper provides an analysis of the effects of exchange rate volatility levels on international trade. Intuitively, an increase in exchange rate volatility leads to uncertainty...