For monetary policy guiding inflation expectations provides an instrument to achieve price stability. However, expectation uncertainty may undermine monetary policy's ability to stabilise the economy. This study examines the effects of inflation expectation uncertainty on inflation, inflation...

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

This paper replicates the main analysis of Svensson (2015) with some expansion to the original analysis, mainly for the United States. Overall, the replication exercise successfully confirms the conclusions of Svensson (2015). In both Sweden and the United States, empirical evidence sup- ports...

We assess Lars E O Svensson's prominent critique of the Swedish Riksbank. We reject his two major claims: first that the Riksbank has anchored inflation expectations at the 2 percent inflation target, and second, that the original version of the Phillips curve, based constant inflation...

The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and...

We show that if business cycles are driven by financial shocks, the interplay between the effective lower bound (ELB) and the costs of external financing can generate an additional supply-side channel, which causes a disconnect between inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate...

We analyze the impact of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy on the distribution of the frequency of price change and its consequences for the slope of the Phillips curve for the United States. By combining product-level microdata on the frequency of price change with data on...

The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and...

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between "formation" of inflation expectations and "incorporation" of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation...

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. We find that...