This study attempts to analyse how uncertainty about future government spending affects the representative individual’s lifetime utility by using a discrete inter-temporal optimizing model. Intuitively, the study shows that the overall effect of a highly positive domestic-debt repayment gap is...

This paper tests for the impact of survivorship bias by building on the work of Cubbin, Eidne, Firer and Gilbert (2006), and Bailey and Gilbert (2007). The former paper confirmed the existence of mean reversion on the JSE Securities Exchange, because portfolios of shares with high Price to...

This research challenges previous findings regarding the robustness of the African growth dummy by expanding the list of variables to include those suggested by Easterly and Levine (1998) and Sachs and Warner (1997b). Using the Bayesing Averaging of Classical Estimates Approach, this paper...

Given the importance of the labour market to economic activity in any country, it is important to correctly infer trends from the available labour data. In South Africa, several researchers have compared selected household surveys with each other and then drew conclusions about the ‘trends’...

This paper explores two traditions of optimism in economics. In one of these traditions optimism is based on the comprehension of a spontaneous (and often progressive) order in a decentralised (or market) economy – what I will call the optimism of the “invisible hand”. Against the optimism...

This paper offers evidence on the sensitivity of child poverty in South Africa to changes in the Adult Equivalence Scale (AES) and updates the child poverty profile based on the Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/06. Setting the poverty line at the 40th percentile of households calculated with...

This paper, originally written at the time of the political transition, provides an overview of social security issues at that time. A sustained improvement in the living standards of the poor requires economic growth and investment in human capital to allow the poor to benefit from that growth,...

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post-transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non-official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing...

Professional sports leagues aim to provide attractive contests that maximise fan interest. Literature on the demand for professional sport suggests that fans derive utility from identifying with teams and from the quality of contests, which depends on uncertainty of outcome and demonstration of...

The debate about the consequences of economic growth on poverty and welfare was recently rekindled in South Africa by announcements that the government would be targeting a sustainable growth rate of 6 percent per annum under the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa...