In a recent paper, Borio et al (2013a) show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. It is argued that output may be on an unsustainable path despite low and stable inflation if financial imbalances are accumulating....

We examine the case for donors providing financial incentives to NGOs to increase community participation. We show that, when such incentives are provided, there need not exist any meaningful relationship between beneficiary welfare and the extent of community participation implemented by an...

Several empirical studies have found that fiscal policy has been sustainable in South Africa since 1960. This paper complements these studies by providing perspective on the manner in which fiscal sustainability was maintained. It discusses two episodes of significant increases and one period of...

The persistently high unemployment rate has always been one of the most pressing socio-economic problems of the South African economy. There is a general consensus that unemployment is structural, as there is a mismatch between the skills demanded by employers for the available jobs and the...

In South Africa, like in many developing countries, the differences between enrolment totals, estimated by the education authorities, and the numbers of children in the country, estimated by demographers in the national statistical agency, defy easy explanations and suggest that one or both sets...

Biotechnology has been identified as one of the key sectors for future economic growth in many countries, with South Africa being no exception. Consequently, the South African government introduced the National Biotechnology Strategy (NBS) in 2001 whilst trying to modernize the government’s...

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous default on entrepreneur loans and funds borrowed from the central bank (liquidity injections) and investigates the welfare cost of sovereign default. The results show that sovereign default affects production through...

The National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), introduced since 2008, has become an alternative data source for the South African poverty and inequality analyses. In addition to the fact that NIDS is the first national panel study of individuals in South Africa, it is also the only survey that...

For many children around the world, access to higher education and the labour market depends on becoming fluent in a second language. This presents a challenge to education policy: when and how in the school programme should a transition to the second language occur? While a large theoretical...

The paper investigates whether fiscal credibility in South Africa (SA) would be enhanced by following the international trend of establishing a fiscal council. Given that fiscal councils and numerical fiscal rules are increasingly seen as complementary aspects of fiscal policymaking frameworks,...