We examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S.interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast performance of several individual term structure models. Our...

We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and in ation, and evaluate dfferent combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with various...

New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that need not be accurate. The technique presented allows for agents to...

This paper explores the existence of downward real wage rigidity (drwr) in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973–1999, using data for hourly nominal earnings at industry level. Based on a nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country and year specific variation in both the...

In an influential paper Engel (1999. Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes, Journal of Political Economy 107, 507-538) argues that essentially all the flctuations in the real exchange rate can be attributed to fluctuations in the relative price of traded goods, and that only a small...

Increased competition forces banks to narrow lending margins and at the same time relaxed lending standards worsen the pool of borrowers. To preserve sound banking system it is important task to monitor credit risk as one of the dominant factors leading to bank failures and financial...

A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, DNWR for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or "a floor" for the aggregate wage growth at positive or negative levels. Aggregate wage growth...

The lumpy nature of plant-level investment is generally not taken into account in the context of monetary theory (see, e.g., Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005). We formulate a generalized (S,s) pricing and investment model which is empirically more plausible along that dimension....

This paper explores the existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the industry sectors of 14 European countries, over the period 1973–1999, using a data set of hourly nominal wages at industry level. Based on a novel nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country and...

We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying shocks to interest rates and house prices by using a combination of short-run and long-run...