This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for occasional...

We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class...

In this paper we address the question whether countries on the African continent have lower average growth rates in real GDP per capita than countries in Asia and Latin America. In contrast to previous studies, we do not aggregate the data, nor do we a priori assign countries to clusters....

We develop a formal statistical approach to investigate the possibility that leading indicator variables have different lead times at business cycle peaks and troughs. For this purpose, we propose a novel Markov switching vector autoregressive model, where economic growth and leading indicators...

This paper studies the economic development process, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for a large panel of countries. We propose a methodology that identifies groups of countries (convergence clubs) that show similar GDP structures, while allowing for changes in club memberships over...

Charitable organizations often consider direct mailings to raise donations. Obviously, it is important for a charity to make a profitable selection from available mailing lists, which can be its own list or a list obtained elsewhere. For this purpose, a charitable organization usually has to...

We propose a new model to describe consideration, consisting of a multivariate probit model component for consideration and a multinomial probit model component for choice, given consideration. The approach allows one to analyze stated consideration set data, revealed consideration set (choice)...

In this paper we put forward a duration model to analyze the dynamic effects of marketing-mix variables on interpurchase times. We extend the accelerated failure-time model with an autoregressive structure. An important feature of our model is that it allows for different long-run and short-run...

In this chapter we use a simulation experiment to examine whether the seasonal adjustment methods Census X12-ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS effectively remove seasonality properties from time series data, while preserving other features like the stochastic trend. As data generating processes we use a...

To enable answering the question in the title, we introduce a bivariate censored latent effects autoregression, and discuss representation, parameter estimation, diagnostics and inference. We show that this bivariate nonlinear model is very useful for examining common nonlinearity. We apply the...