The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...

Expert opinion is an opinion given by an expert, and it can have significant value in forecasting key policy variables in economics and finance. Expert forecasts can either be expert opinions, or forecasts based on an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is...

This paper derives results for the temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes in the general vector specification. It is shown that the class of weak multivariate GARCH processes is closed under temporal aggregation. Fourth moment characteristics turn out to be crucial for the low...

Global trade depends for a large part on maritime transport, and safe ships are needed not only to protect precious cargo but also to prevent environmental damage. Flag state and port state authorities spend much effort in ship safety inspections to ensure a minimum safety level and to prevent...

In a decentralized two-stage supply chain where a supplier serves a retailer who, in turn, serves end customers, operations decisions based on local incentives often lead to suboptimal system performance. Operating decisions based on local incentives may in such cases lead to a degree of system...

A logarithmic residue is a contour integral of the (left or right) logarithmic derivative of an analytic Banach algebra valued function. Logarithmic residues are intimately related to sums of idempotents. The present paper is concerned with logarithmic residues and sums of idempotents in the...

The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and forecasting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the...

This paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts...

Since the early 1990's, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has designated fourteen sea areas as Particular Sensitive Sea Areas (PSSA) that enjoy special protection because of their various important attributes and vulnerability to potential harm by increasing shipping activities. The...

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the return and repeated migration of immigrants. Using longitudinal data from Statistics Netherlands we track migration histories of recent immigrants to The Netherlands and analyze which migrants will stay in the country, which...