Swaps are one of the major innovations of the 80s but there are little empirical studies on interest rates swaps (IRS), especially on European markets. To understand how swap pricing works, we estimate IRS valuation models for the French swap market. On one hand, from the market value of the...

The authors examine the Bank of Canada's overnight rate as a measure of monetary policy in vector autoregression (VAR) models.

Recent studies of climate anomalies have highlghted an apparent upward trend at the surface and the relevance absence of such a trend in the troposhere, which conflicts with predictions from climate models. Time series estimation methods are used to evaluate linear and piecewise-linear trends in...

This paper introduces nonlinear dynamic factor models for various applications related to risk analysis. Traditional factor models represent the dynamics of processes driven by movements of latent variables, called the factors. Our approach extends this setup by introducing factors defined as...

We propose in this paper a Bayesian approach with a noninformative prior distribution developed in Mengersen and Robert (1996) and Robert and Titterington (1996) in the setup of mixtures of distributions and hidden Markov models, respectively.

We consider a kernel based approach to nonlinear canonical correlation analysis and its implementation for time series. We deduce various diagnostics for reversible processes and gaussian processes.

Simulation-based estimation methods have become more wideky used in recent years. We propose a set of tests for structural Change in model estimates via Simulated Method of Moments (see Duffie and Singleton (1993)). These tests extend the recent work of Andrews (1993) and Sowell (1996a, b) which...