The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

We employ a battery of model evaluation tests for a broad-set of GARCH-MIDAS models and account for data snooping bias. We document that inferences based on standard tests for GM variance components can be misleading. Our data mining free results show that the gains of macro-variables in...

Using the S&P GSCI and its five component sub-indices, we show that considering each commodity separately yields nontrivial hedging gains in and out of sample. During 1999-2019, the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio assigns positive weights to the GSCI Energy, Industrial and Precious Metals,...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is rooted in behavioural psychology and has demonstrated to possess sufficient explanatory power for use in actual deci­ sion-making problems. In this study, two distinct asset classes (i.e. assets with extremely lower or higher CPT values) are classified and...

In this paper, we investigate the day of the week and the month of the year effects in African stock markets, both in the Gregorian and the Hijri calendars. Specifically, we investigate Monday effect, Friday effect, January effect and Ramadan effect, from January 2009 to December 2019, using OLS...

Regular or automated processes require reliable software applications that provide accurate volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasts. The univariate and multivariate GARCH models proposed in the literature are reviewed and the suitability of selected R functions for automated forecasting systems...

We provide a fresh look at the performance of the stock prices of firms that launched an IPO between 2009 and 2019 and assess the role of their size, age and sector in affecting future performance. We utilize data about 1611 IPOs spanning 11 economic sectors using the event study method. We...

Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios, First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its...

We examine if extreme weather exposure impacts firms' cost of equity. Motivated by a consumption-based asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents, we reveal the existence of an extreme weather risk premium in the cross-section of stock returns. In the period from 1995 to 2019, domestic U.S....