This paper investigates how changes in industries funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on panel regressions using data for U.S. and Canadian industries and industries dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, we show that increases in the cost...

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a twocountry, twogood business cycle...

Forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors’ ability to predict movements in the stock prices of the retailing chains. Therefore, this paper uses 26 (23 single and 3 combination) forecasting models to forecast South Africa’s aggregate seasonal retail sales. We use data...

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and...

We consider a DSGE model with flexible prices, monopolistic competitive banks and sticky interest rates, together with endogenous firms exit and entry decisions. We find that economies characterized by endogenous firms dynamics imply higher volatilities of both real and financial variables than...

El auge de los países asiáticos tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial se convirtió en un reto para la economía como disciplina y para las ciencias sociales en general. La trayectoria de Japón muestra que la tentativa de imitar el modelo de producción estadounidense se tropezó con las...

La presente investigación tiene por objetivo dilucidar la existencia, en el periodo de 1960 a 2011, de un ciclo político en la economía mexicana, que permita a los gobiernos en turno influir en variables económicas estratégicas durante los procesos electorales, incidir en la decisión de...

This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium model for explaining residential investment dynamics in the United States, focusing on the distinctive cyclical features of residential investment in that it leads the whole economy. This paper is different from the existing...

From an analysis of the uncertainties, deficiencies and negative effects of the present monetary system the necessity and the requirements for a new monetary order are derived. These requirements are fulfilled by the presented regulations of a monetary order, which is based on the proposals of...

To end a financial crisis, the central bank is to lend freely, against good collateral, at a high rate, according to Bagehot’s Rule. We argue that in theory and in practice there is a missing ingredient to Bagehot’s Rule: secrecy. Re-creating confidence requires that the central bank lend in...