Three puzzles are closely related to the forward-bias puzzle and the failure of uncovered interest parity: (1) UIP failure is greater for short than long maturities, (2) forward bias is larger between developed than between developing countries and (3) there is no systematic forward bias in...

Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar - Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw...

The problems posed by monetary policy cannot be dealt with by legislating enduring policy rules. With the passage of time, economic understanding does not systematically converge ever more closely on a "true" model of the economy, a process which is now sufficiently far along that our current...