Recently, there have been numerous advances in modelling optimal international portfolio allocations in macroeconomic models. A major focus of this literature has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks. However, there...

In this paper we speculate about the evolution of the international monetary system in the last two-thirds of the twentieth century absent the Great Depression, but present the major post-Depression political and economic upheavals: World War II and the Cold War. We argue that without the...

In the paper I examine the trade-offs between internal and external balance and the role of macroeconomic policy in Greece. I estimate and test versions of the two principal open economy macromodels: the imperfect-substitutes, one-sector model, and the two-sector model with nontraded goods. Both...

This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These...

In the context of monopolistic price adjustment and price setting behavior on the part of firms, it is shown that a large discrete adjustment of the nominal exchange rate as opposed to a crawling peg is likely to result in faster adjustment of domestic prices. This is the case because an...

In this paper I explore whether knowledge of the time-series properties of premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange can be usefully exploited in forecasting future spot exchange rates. I use signal-extraction techniques, based on recursive application of the Kalman filter, to identify...

The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) is the real exchange rate which produces a current account that is exactly matched by equilibrium medium-term capital flows. This paper sets out a small model to calculate FEERs for the G7 from 1971 to 1988. This model's parameters are either...

We model the joint risk neutral distribution of the euro-sterling and the dollar-sterling exchange rates using option-implied marginal distributions that are connected via a copula function that satisfies the triangular no-arbitrage condition. We then derive a univariate distribution for a...

Imperfect capital mobility is modelled in a two-country intertemporal general equilibrium framework by assuming that agents face costs of adjusting asset stocks in foreign asset markets. Goods markets are imperfectly competitive and goods prices are subject to sluggish adjustment. Simulation...

This paper studies the evolution of monetary policy targets over the course of the past 200 years. We argue that policy targets are set as part of an assignment procedure that is intended to address both time consistency and monitoring problems. As a result, central banks, after having been...