The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...

The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It...

In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...

Exchange Rate (ER) stability is an important factor in determining the economic position of an economy. Speculation in the exchange rate shows the poor performance of a country. A change in the exchange rate may affect the inflation as well as interest rate in the country and Pakistan in not an...

We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....

India’s foreign trade has seen a multi-fold increase, since liberalisation of the economy. However, at present, Indian economy is facing the problem of burgeoning imports and thereby growing deficit in its balance of payments position. On one side, there is a growing competition in pushing the...

The literature of trade balance and exchange rate devaluation have enjoyed enormous reviews with different decays ranging from aggregation bias, specification bias to the exclusion of effects of structural breaks on bilateral trade flows. This motivates this study to investigate the J-curve...