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Three essays on forecasting and information acquisition in finance
Putintseva, Maria - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233956
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Predictive Power of Information Market Prices
PUTINTSEVA, Maria
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550278
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RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST
Blackwell, Calvin - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 1, pp. 12-25
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798250
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Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets
Spears, Brian; LaComb, Christina; Interrante, John; … - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 3 (2009) 1, pp. 17-39
We present the outcome of an idea market run for one of GE Energy's sub-businesses in July and August of 2006. GE Energy used this market to elicit and rank-order technology and product ideas from across the sub-business. In this experiment, we examine the behavior of traders that have submitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005256302
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Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, Giovanni - 2020
We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845884
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PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY: THE IMPACT OF SIZE, INCENTIVES, CONTEXT AND INTERPRETATION
McHugh, Patrick; Jackson, Aaron - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 6 (2012) 2, pp. 22-46
Enterprises desiring to utilize prediction markets for decision support must consider numerous design factors for their market deployments. Through logistic regression analyses of more than 350 real and play-money prediction markets, this paper evaluates several design issues in order to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798259
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Explaining the favorite-longshot bias: Is it risk-love or misperceptions?
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin - 2010
of the probability of a horse winning - longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276786
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Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin - CESifo - 2010
of the probability of a horse winning—longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572550
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Organizational Forms in Professional Cycling –Efficiency Issues of the UCI Pro Tour
Rebeggiani, Luca; Tondani, Davide - Universität <Hannover> / Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche … - 2006
This paper gives a first economic approach to pro cycling and analyses the changes induced bythe newly introduced UCI Pro Tour on the racing teams’ behaviour. We develop an oligopolistic model startingfrom the well known Cournot framework to analyse if the actual setting of the UCI Pro Tour...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005867490
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Forecasting Tourist Arrivals with Google Trends and Mixed Frequency Data
Havranek, Tomas; Zeynalov, Ayaz - 2018
whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether … a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable … arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model that employs weekly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011935715