INTRODUCTION;ROLE OF FINANCIAL VARIABLES;A TWO-STEP APPROACH TO MODEL INFLATION ; MODELLING LONG-MEDIUM TERM COMPONENT OF INFLATION ;A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF INFLATION; 4 TWO FORECASTING APPLICATIONS IN REAL-TIME; REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF MONTHLY INFLATION; MODEL FORECASTS...

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on downward real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based...

We simulate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different fiscal consolidation scenarios in Italy using a medium scale two-areas dynamic general equilibrium currency-union model. Differently from similar models, ours is rich in the terms of fiscal features. We assume distortionary...

We investigate the relationship between life-cycle wages and flexicurity in Denmark. We separate permanent from transitory wages and characterise flexicurity using membership of unemployment insurance funds. We find that flexicurity is associated with lower wage growth heterogeneity over the...

This paper deals with the topic of revision of data with the aim of investigating whether consecutive releases of macroeconomic series published by statistical agencies contain useful information for economic analysis and forecasting. The rationality of the re-visions process is tested...

This paper investigates the economic consequences of migration in the Ramsey-type dynamic optimizing context. In contrast to Hazari and Sgro (2003) conclusions, we show that with a Cobb-Douglas production function migration unambiguously reduces per-capita domestic consumption growth, whereas...

Italy's overall GDP growth has been dismal in recent years and this poor performance has been compounded by a declining trend in labour productivity and total factor productivity growth. This paper looks into growth accounting and structural indicators and analyses Italy's performance against...

Indicators are used in all steps of the policy cycle: to assess existing policies or to develop new strategies. They mark where a society stands, where it wants to go and how remote is it from where it wants to arrive. Indicators (and indices) are widely used tools to measure the progress of a...

We compare a carbon tax and a cap and trade mechanism in their propensity to induce carbon-reducing technological adoption, when investments are undertaken under uncertainty. In our setting, risk-neutral firms affect the variance and the correlation of the shocks they are exposed to through...

In this paper a dynamic factor model with mixed frequency is proposed (FaMIDAS), where the past observations of high frequency indicators are used following the MIDAS approach. This structure is able to represent with richer dynamics the information content of the economic indicators and...