Rural poverty, a widespread problem for the Paraguayan government over the last decade – as well as for other economies in the region – , led to the implementation, in 2016 and 2017, of the “Sembrando Oportunidades Familia por Familia” pilot program, an initiative based on the graduation...

This paper investigates the relationship between analyst coverage and new product introduction. Using information on consumer-packaged goods, I find that higher analyst coverage leads to more new product introductions. To establish causality, I exploit brokerage mergers and closures to identify...

We provide a justification for why and when endogeneity will not cause a major bias in the interpretation of the coefficients in a regression model. We give detailed mathematical steps so that our results are instructive to a wide audience. This technique can be a viable alternative or even used...

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in each period, had a particular treatment sequence been...

Testing for constant expected returns and forecasting future returns necessitate the information beyond a single predictor. We consider the predictive regression model with multiple predictors which are potentially strongly persistent and cointegrated. Instrumental variables based tests for...

In this paper a new instrument for monetary policy shocks is presented. Exogenous variation of the policy rate may come from frictions of collective decision-making. Dissenting votes indicate how far the final decision of the decision making body is from the mean of the members' individually...

As part of the Colombian government's strategy to support the armed-conflict victims, a Graduation Program called "Transformando Mi Futuro" (Transforming my future) was implemented. Unlike other graduation programs, this one targets the urban population and has no assets transfers. To evaluate...

We quantify the effects of policy uncertainty on the economy using a proxy structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Our instrument in the proxy SVAR is a set of exogenous uncertainty events constructed using a text-based narrative approach. Usually the narrative approach involves manually...

IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of macroeconomic shocks. Conditions for identification generally involve all the shocks in the VAR even when only a subset of them is of interest. This paper provides more general conditions that only involve the shocks of...

We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing ‘narrative restrictions’ (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock...