We propose a general form of vector Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) for the dynamics of duration, volume and price volatility. The vector MEM relaxes the two restrictions often imposed by previous empirical work in market microstructure research, by allowing interdependence among the variables...

This paper provides a strategy for portfolio risk management by inferring extreme movements in financial markets. The core of the provided strategy is a statistical model for the joint tail distribution that attempts to capture accurately the data generating process through an extremal modelling...

This paper investigates the Information content of daily trading volume with respect to the long-run or high persistent and the short-run or transitory components of the volatility of daily stock market returns using bivariate mixture models. For this purpose, the Standard bivariate mixture...

Capital-labor substitution and TFP estimates are essential features of many economic models. Such models typically embody a balanced growth path. This often leads researchers to estimate models imposing stringent prior choices on technical change. We demonstrate that estimation of the...

The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the frameworkof the cointegrated vector-autoregression. Specifically, we suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component in...

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...

Path forecasts, defined as sequences of individual forecasts, generated by vector autoregressions are widely used in applied work. It has been recognized that a profound econometric analysis requires, besides the path forecast, a joint prediction region that contains the whole future path with a...

We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for...

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...

This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income growth in US states. The results suggest that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude and the persistence of the response to uncertainty shocks across states....