This paper integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. The model is used to study the dynamic response of the economy to a monetary policy shock. The labor market displays search and matching frictions and bargaining over real wages and...

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and analyze its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is...

How and why does distant political and economic history shape the functioning of current institutions? This paper argues that individual values and convictions about the scope of application of norms of good conduct provide the "missing link". Evidence from a variety of sources points to two...

In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our evaluation is based on using the variables in the ECB Euroarea model database, plus a set of similar variables for the U.S. We compare the forecasting performance of each...

This paper studies the case where a game is played in a particular context. The context influences what beliefs players hold. As such, it may affect forward induction reasoning: If players rule out specific beliefs, they may not be able to rationalize observed behavior. The effects are not...

In this paper we analyze a novel dataset of Business and Consumer Surveys, using dynamic factor techniques, to produce composite coincident indices (CCIs) at the sectoral level for the European countries and for Europe as a whole. Few CCIs are available for Europe compared to the US, and most of...

There has been a lot of interest recently in developing small scale rule-based empirical macro models for the analysis of monetary policy. These models, based on the conventional view that inflation stabilization should be a concern of monetary policy only, have typically neglected the role of...

The wage paid to elected officials affects both the choice of citizens to run for office and the performance of those who are appointed. On the one hand, if skilled individuals shy away from politics because of higher opportunities in the private sector, an increase in politicians’ pay may...

Pooling forecasts obtained from different procedures typically reduces the mean square forecast error and more generally improves the quality of the forecast. In this paper we evaluate whether pooling interpolated or backdated time series obtained from different procedures can also improve the...

This paper examines competition in a liberalized market, with reference to some key features of the natural gas industry. Each firm has a low (zero) marginal cost core capacity, due to long term contracts with take or pay obligations, and additional capacity at higher marginal costs. The market...